Masters week is upon us for the second time in six months, just in time to win back all the money you lost on March Madness. If you tailed my picks, you didn't have a great tournament, unless you took Baylor's pre tournament odds (I myself did not take them because it was only +600). But again, I did say fading me wouldn't be a terrible idea, so it's not really my fault.
This week, however, I do not suggest fading me. I have recently discovered an un-beatable new betting strategy that I plan on putting to the test. Overall, golf betting is about as random as it gets, and normally, a complete waste of money. With that being said, lets get into my picks.
Jordan Spieth +1200
I really don't want to take Spieth to win this week, but I would rather lose money than watch him win without me betting on him. He finally broke through last week at the Valero Open, shooting 18-under to win his first tournament in 1,351 days. This definitely makes him a tempting pick this week, especially because he is historically one of the best golfers at Augusta, but I don't think he gets it done. I think he plays well and finishes somewhere in the top 25, but I don't see him in contention late on Sunday. (Bonus pick, take him to complete the career Grand Slam at the PGA in May this year. That is a lock). Throw like 0.25 units on this one.
Bryson DeChambeau +1100
I love Bryson this week. You can dislike him as a person, but it is getting hard to ignore how good he is at golf. Coming in at 6'1", 245 lbs, this NFL fullback absolutely destroys golf balls. Last time he played in the Masters, he got laughed off the course after claiming it would be a par 67 for him and then barely making the cut. However, if there is one thing this guy loves doing, it's proving people wrong. I think he has been waiting for this moment ever since the last Masters ended, and I feel like he comes out hot and puts himself into serious contention on Sunday. When courses play tough, it helps if you can hit a wedge or short iron into every green. Please watch the video below of him looking absolutely insane on the range.
John Rahm to Miss the Cut +650
This pick does not have much to do with golf. John Rahm and his wife, Kelley Cahill, announced the birth of their first child this past weekend, but I don't think it will help his chances of playing well. I am completely guessing here, but while it seems like a time when he would be very happy, he is most likely stressed out as well (baby+Masters=stress, simple math). I predict him to not be completely there mentally this week, and if you aren't absolutely locked in, Augusta will get you.
Tony Finau +3300 *BEST BET*
This is the new betting strategy I was talking about - the green jersey play is back. If you followed it during March Madness, it predicted several upsets, including the national championship. It is starting to demand the attention of the betting world, and this week will be the final test. Please see Tony Finau's Instagram post from earlier this week, showing his outfits for all four days.
In the video he posted after the picture, you could see that the neon green shirt on the far left is the shirt Nike picked out for him to wear on Sunday. So, if he were to win, he would be putting the green jacket on over his neon green shirt. On top of that, he uses a green grip on all of his clubs. The green jersey play is an absolute go.
If you do not believe in that logic for some reason, there are some golf stats that support his chances as well. Now that Spieth has finally won again, there is not a player on tour more due for a win than Finau. With only one career win at the Puerto Rico Open in 2016, he has defied odds by not winning again. With eight second place finishes, three thirds, and 44 top 10's over his career, his second win is coming soon. He has already finished second twice this year, losing the Genesis Invitational in a playoff to Max Homa. In the past, he has played well at Augusta, finishing two shots behind Tiger in 2019 after teeing off in the final group on Sunday. He seems ready to grab a career defining win, and The Masters would be a great place to do it.
*Honorable mention to Bubba for these*
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
There isn't anything specific about his game that points to a good week this week, but he is way too talented to not have any major wins yet. When he is playing well, the only thing that can stop him is his putter, and you have to think he eventually puts it all together. He has finished in the top 10 in all four majors at least once, and I like his chances to grab one very soon.
Brooks Koepka to Miss the Cut +250
If Brooks was healthy, there is no chance I would ever take him to miss a cut in a major. Unfortunately, I think he is rushing back. +250 for him to miss a cut in a major tells me that Vegas isn't sure about which Brooks we will get either, and I am willing to take the risk that he is not in good enough shape to take on Augusta.
Matthew Wolff +10000 (longshot)
He is young, but he is a future star on the PGA tour. People get lost in his unique swing and forget that he was an absolute stud in college and is very good at golf. He missed the cut at his first Masters, but finished fourth and the 2020 PGA and second at the 2021 US Open. He isn't as consistent as I believe he will be one day, but if he gets going, he can compete with anyone.
PICKS
To Win:
**Bryson +1100**
**Finau +3300**
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Spieth?? +1200
Matthew Wolff +10,000
Top Ten:
Bryson +110
Finau +200
Top Five:
Bryson +200
Finau +550
1st Round Leader:
Bryson +1800
Fianu +3300
1st Round Matchups:
Bryson -175 vs. Adam Scott
Finau +110 vs. Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele +115 vs. John Rahm
Matsuyama -120 vs. Jason Day
To Miss the Cut:
John Rahm +650
Brooks Koepka +250
Comments